It’s 1998. The year of the first iMac, Windows 98 and the launch of Google Search. An eventful year in tech.
1998年。第一台iMac，Windows 98和Google搜索的推出。 高科技的一年。
People have been listening to music on CD’s for over a decade, but that’s all about to change. A superior storage format packs more music, portability and durability into a smaller form factor, and it’s poised to take the world by storm.
人们听CD上的音乐已有十多年了，但这一切都将改变。 出色的存储格式可将更多的音乐，便携性和耐用性打包成更小的外形，并有望席卷全球。
That’s right you guessed it, it’s MiniDisc.
是的，您猜对了，它是MiniDisc。
If you’ve never heard of the MiniDisc format, you’re not alone. The technology was first introduced by Sony in 1992, but spent most of the 90’s struggling to gain traction due to a general lack of interest and high prices. Eventually in 1998 Sony went aggressively for the American market by lowering prices and pushing massive ad campaigns. It turned out to be too little too late.
如果您从未听说过MiniDisc格式，那么您并不孤单。 该技术由索尼于1992年首次引入，但由于普遍缺乏兴趣和高昂的价格，在90年代的大部分时间里都在努力获得吸引力。 最终在1998年，索尼通过降低价格和推动大规模的广告攻势积极进军美国市场。 事实证明太少太迟了。
Apple’s iPod had arrived, and the rest is history.
苹果的iPod已经到货，剩下的就是历史了。
In late 2020 we have a handful of mainstream foldable phones in the market. As first generation devices, they’re fairly divergent in their use of folding screen technology.
在2020年末，我们将在市场上出售少量主流的可折叠手机。 作为第一代设备，它们在折叠屏技术的使用上存在很大差异。
The Motorola Razr and Samsung Galaxy Z-Flip are phone-sized devices that fold down to half the size. 摩托罗拉Razr和三星Galaxy Z-Flip是手机大小的设备，可折叠至一半大小。 The Samsung Galaxy Fold is a phone sized device that opens out to double the size. 三星Galaxy Fold是手机大小的设备，可以打开两倍大小。 The Huawei Mate X does the same but with the screen wrapping around the outside, instead of being enclosed. 华为Mate X的功能与此相同，但屏幕包裹在外部，而不是被封闭。 And then you have devices that are two seperate screens on a hinge, such as the Microsoft Surface Duo and the LG V60. (I discount these dual screen devices as true ‘foldable screens’ as you can’t consume single-frame content such as a movie in the same, seamless way as with flexible displays.) 然后，您拥有的设备是铰链上的两个独立屏幕，例如Microsoft Surface Duo和LG V60。 (我将这些双屏设备打折为真正的“可折叠屏幕”，因为您不能像使用柔性显示器一样以无缝的方式来消费电影等单帧内容。)Flexible displays are an incredible technical innovation, capable of solving two problems:
柔性显示器是一项令人难以置信的技术创新，能够解决两个问题：
Large screens are better to look at, but harder to hold/carry. 大屏幕更好看，但更难握住/携带。 Flat, rounded rectangle smartphones are becoming too ‘boring’ for many tech enthusiasts. 扁平，圆角矩形的智能手机对于许多技术爱好者来说变得“无聊”。If we grade foldable devices the same way we would any smartphone, we can see these early attempts come with several drawbacks.
如果我们以与任何智能手机相同的方式对可折叠设备进行分级，我们会发现这些早期尝试会带来一些弊端。
Sub-standard battery life. 电池寿命不合标准。 Durability issues. 耐久性问题。 Having to open and close the device with use. 使用时必须打开和关闭设备。 Device thickness. 装置厚度。 Cost. 成本。These sacrifices however, will shrink over time. What we have is a fixed benefit (twice the screen for half the size) with drawbacks that will diminish over successive generations of devices. As smartphones have improved in every way over the last decade, a foldable device years from now may overcome most if not all of these limitations.
但是，这些牺牲将随着时间的流逝而缩小。 我们所拥有的是固定的好处(两倍于屏幕的一半尺寸)，其缺点将在连续几代设备中逐渐减少。 随着智能手机在过去十年中的各个方面都有所改进，从现在开始的可折叠设备可能会克服大多数(即使不是全部)局限性。
The only thing is, It’s doubtful we’ll ever get to see it…
唯一的是，我们能否看到它真是令人怀疑……
In late 2020, there are few AR ‘smart glasses’ worth talking about. Popularised way back in 2013 by Google’s Ill-fated Google Glass project, the category of smart glasses is still hazy and underdeveloped. The most notable entry is Microsoft’s Hololens, the second generation of which quietly launched last year to enterprise customers.
在2020年末，几乎没有值得讨论的AR“智能眼镜”。 早在2013年，受到Google命运多Google的Google Glass项目的广泛推广，智能眼镜的类别仍然朦胧而欠发达。 最值得注意的是微软的Hololens，它的第二代产品于去年悄悄地面向企业客户推出。
Microsoft’s Hololens 2 微软的Hololens 2Today, we struggle to imagine a future filled with mass-market AR glasses, though based on recent rumours Apple seems hell-bent on creating it.
今天，我们很难想象一个充满大众市场的AR眼镜的未来，尽管根据最近的谣言，苹果公司似乎在创造它方面大吃一惊。
What we’re talking about is more than just a peripheral accessory. A device that can remove the friction of being constrained to a screen has the potential to redefine personal computing. What will Apple’s AR smart glasses look like and how much value will they actually bring? That’s literally the trillion dollar question.
我们所说的不仅仅是外围配件。 可以消除约束在屏幕上的摩擦的设备具有重新定义个人计算的潜力。 苹果的AR智能眼镜将是什么样子，它们将真正带来多少价值？ 这实际上是数万亿美元的问题。
Apple rarely dives into a new product offering without building towards its success well in advance. Back in 2015, Apple began including biometric authentication technology (Touch ID) into all its mobile devices. As a result, only a couple years later Apple Pay could become deeply integrated into iOS and pushed into the hands of millions of iOS users. Today Apple has already laid the tracks towards an achievable mass-market AR smart glass product.
苹果很少在没有提前取得成功的情况下投入新产品。 早在2015年，Apple就开始在其所有移动设备中加入生物识别技术(Touch ID)。 结果，仅几年之后，Apple Pay便可以与iOS深度集成，并被数百万iOS用户所掌握。 今天，苹果公司已经为实现大众市场的AR智能玻璃产品奠定了基础。
ARKit has been in the hands of developers for 3 years. ARKit已经在开发人员手中已经三年了。 Apple’s devices are rolling out with U1 chips, which can allow for more precise location tracking (potentially to be shown in AR). 苹果的设备正在使用U1芯片推出，这可以实现更精确的位置跟踪(可能在AR中显示)。 App clips are being introduced with iOS 14, allowing developers to create small discrete applications that aren’t tied to apps and complex levels of inputs. iOS 14中将引入应用程序剪辑，从而使开发人员可以创建与应用程序和复杂的输入级别无关的小型离散应用程序。 Apple has dabbled in 3D sensing Lidar scanners in their latest iPad Pros, and may look into including them in future iPhones. 苹果已经在其最新的iPad Pro中涉足3D感测激光雷达扫描仪，并且可能会考虑将它们包括在未来的iPhone中。 Recent updates to Apple Maps includes support for viewing in AR. Apple Maps的最新更新包括支持在AR中查看。It opens up a lot of interesting possibilities. And the most dramatic one is that it could not only make flexible displays obsolete, but possibly displays in and of themselves. Since the dawn of computing, physical screens have been necessary for us to interact with our operating systems and interfaces.
它带来了许多有趣的可能性。 最引人注目的是，它不仅可以使柔性显示器过时，而且可以使自身显示。 自从计算开始以来，就需要物理屏幕来与我们的操作系统和界面进行交互。
Would the limitations of physical screens be more obvious, if AR glasses could potentially render a screen, or information before our very eyes anywhere we look?
如果AR眼镜可以潜在地渲染屏幕或在我们看到的任何地方都无法看到信息，那么物理屏幕的局限性会更明显吗？
Foldable devices may go down in history as a weird relic that was both ahead and behind its time. Something like the futuristic fax machines in Marty’ McFly’s future home in Back to the Future II.
可折叠设备在历史上可能是落后于时代的怪异遗物。 就像Marty McFly未来之家“ Back to the Future II”中的未来派传真机一样。
Because physical screens on pocketable devices may soon be left behind. No matter how well they fold.
因为可放在口袋里的设备上的物理屏幕可能很快就会被留下。 无论折叠得如何。
翻译自: https://medium.com/@jerrychang/are-folding-screens-already-irrelevant-9fb046a29a1e
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